Can machine learning help you avoid SCAMs?

Among the many types of artifacts that can fool screens and derail efforts to find leads, small colloidally aggregating molecules (SCAMs) are particularly pernicious. As we discussed way back in 2009, these molecules can form aggregates in aqueous buffer that interfere with a variety of assays, leading to wasted resources and embarrassing publications.

 

The problem is that there isn’t necessarily anything wrong with the molecules per se, and even many approved drugs can form aggregates. Thus, it is difficult to predict whether any given molecule will be a troublemaker. In a new (open-access) Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. paper, Pascal Friederich, Rebecca Davis, and collaborators at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and University of Manitoba Winnipeg explore whether machine learning can help.

 

The researchers built a Multi-Explanation Graph Attention Network, or MEGAN, which is accessible through a simple web interface. Rather than a homicidal doll, this MEGAN represents atoms as nodes and bonds as edges in a graph, similar to the Fragment Network we wrote about here. MEGAN was trained on a set of 12,338 aggregators and 177,048 non-aggregating molecules. Importantly, the researchers used explainable AI (xAI), which colors portions of the molecule according to their importance for (non)aggregation.

 

Testing MEGAN on a set of 1500 aggregators and 1500 non-aggregators, none of which were included in the training set, yielded an accuracy of 82%. Given that most molecules don’t aggregate, a model biased towards non-aggregators would be expected to have a high accuracy, and to account for this the researchers assessed the “F1” score, which was similarly impressive.

 

 

The researchers provide several examples in which subtle variations transform a molecule from a non-aggregator to an aggregator, and show that MEGAN correctly predicts these. Furthermore, it “shows its work,” highlighting the chemical features underlying the prediction. For example, 9H-pyrido[3,4-b]indole is predicted with 92% confidence not to be an aggregator.

 

 

Just adding a methyl group flips the odds in favor of aggregation to 92%.

 

Exploring the molecular features that lead to aggregation can reveal general trends, such as rigid, “flat” molecules with moieties that can serve either as hydrogen bond donors or acceptors. This is consistent with a paper we discussed last year, though unfortunately the researchers do not cite it.

 

To further assess the tool, it was tested against a set of drugs that had been characterized as aggregators or non-aggregators. MEGAN correctly classified 15 of 30 aggregators and 24 of 28 non-aggregators. In contrast, a different program caught only 2 of the aggregators. The researchers note that most of the training data for MEGAN came from a single screen in phosphate buffer at pH 7, and aggregation can be very dependent on buffer components and pH.

 

Practical Fragments has previously highlighted other aggregation predictors, most notably Aggregator Advisor and Liability Predictor. As for any computational model, the old chestnut “trust but verify” applies. MEGAN appears to be a useful tool, but please run physical experiments if the molecule is important.